12 October 2018
Researchers:
Dr Frank de Vocht, Dr Cheryl Mcquire, Professor Kate Tiling, Professor Matthew Hickman. Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School. University of Bristol.
Key findings
- This Bayesian structural time-series modelling framework can provide relatively accurate 1-5 year forecasts of temporal trends in local alcohol-related hospital admissions in England for all lower tier local authorities.
- The number of annual alcohol-related hospital admissions in England is forecasted to increase by just over 4,000 in 2021, corresponding to a decrease of 2.3% in the crude rate.
- Forecasted regional average 2021 forecasts indicate highest increases in the North West and East Midlands, and largest decreases in London and East of England.
- Largest increases in 2021 are forecasted in areas classified as ‘Urban Living’, ‘Seaside Living’ and ‘Prosperous Semi-rural’, and largest decreases in ‘Ethnically Diverse Metropolitan Living’ and ‘London Cosmopolitan’.
- 5-year forecasted impact from alcohol taxation on alcohol-related hospital admissions is small but beneficial, with a 0.2% decrease in expected alcohol-related hospital admissions, with a greater reduction in areas with higher levels of deprivation.
- Trends seem related to alcohol harms disproportionally affecting more deprived communities a demographic trend of middle-aged and older adults moving away from cities to (semi-) rural and seaside towns.
